I bet if John Chen at Sybase thought it would help, he would buy a CD of eerie music and a voodoo doll with Joe Kozak's name on it. Then every few hours he could crank up the music and stick a few pins in the doll in hopes of transferring some of the pain he is feeling from the ACS, Sybase to Oracle, database compatibility server. Soon though, there may be even more pain as ANTs Software works on a Sybase to IBM version. Sybase has at least had the foresight to partner with ANTs on a Microsoft to Sybase server, but how far off is the request from Old Softy for a Sybase to Microsoft killer punch. Sounds like everyone may be picking on the little kid on the block.
Now if I remember correctly, Bill Gates was not the starting linebacker on his college football team. Like many success stories in the business world , if not most of the success stories, brains more often that not outperform brawn . There may be a few exceptions, but my bet is that in the computer industry those exceptions are rare indeed. So what does little Sybase do in the face of these behemoths who are trying to kick sand in their face?
SIMPLY PUT, they have to out think and out react them.
Since I am not employed by any of these companies, just a very interested bystander, I really don't have enough information to do anything but speculate on any viable solutions for Sybase's pickle. A few solutions that might be considered are for Sybase to:
- Buy ANTs and take the threatening servers off the market. To work this needs to be done quickly before there are multiple contracts already in place that must be honored. Also, this strategy may result in a bidding war.
- Get to work post haste on "whoever" to Sybase servers. Then out maneuver and under price the big guys. The big guys may have clout and might, but they are slow and inflexible.
- Allow ANTs to acquire them (Sybase) and then ANTs can have meaningful discussion with SAP or one of the "other" suitors that would follow. Makes me drool to think about it.
- Get out of the database business. I don't think this is a realistic solution, but it may be the only one left if Sybase is too slow getting to the dance floor.
~David Ott~
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17 comments:
Tim Phillips says...
Wow, if I was Sybase I would sure be worried that all three of the big boys would want their own compatability servers to take away all of their database business. Thanks for the great post and for your comments. ANTs is definitely worth looking into.
Let's hope an ANTs buyout doesn't happen any time soon. The potential drama in the database world will be worth the price of admission.
Already I am thinking about Machiavellian possibilities....
Yea Tim, I have been "looking" at ANTs for more years than I care to think about.My short term investment has been many years in the making, but it looks as if the time is rapidly approaching.
Murph, my dream is that we have a front row seat. Machiavellian possibilities are fine as long as we are in the cat-bird seat.
~David~
I doubt ANTs will sell out anytime soon. Unless either IBM, Oracle or Sybase made an offer they couldn't refuse. I think Sybase's options are minus one listed. I don't believe they have the funds to out bid the other companies. If they bought ANTs it would be under the radar of IBM, Microsoft,Oracle.
My opinion is ANTs should buy Sybase. Talk about an overnight success!!
I agree that for ANTs to buy Sybase would be a major step and that is why I listed that option as one of the scenarios in the article. I think that if that purchase was consummated, ANTs would then be a target for several players, one being SAP. I have failed to list Sun Micro in the list, but they could become a player also. Things dreams are made of.
~David~
If either Oracle or IBM were to make motions toward buying ANTS, I predict a repeat of 1999, when share prices of ANTS shot to something like $56 per share. That might give ANTS the chips to buy Sybase.
The corporate drama and profit po$$ibilities are delicious.
Ants buying Sybase is totally out of the question. Sybase has a market capitalization of 2.38B. This is way, way, way out of Ants reach. Doubt they are sweating it out at Sybase yet either - not a single conversion to date.
Not to rain on the parade but Ants has to show there is a demand for ACS before I start to get excited.
Still not sure why they dumped ADS for peanuts. If the rationale was that TimesTen and Solid were acquired for around the capitalization of Ants then we should have gotten somewhere in the 50-100 million dollar ball park for Ants "superior" technology - not 1.4 million from Sybase. I understand that ADS was a monetary drain on the company but why not just sell 4J's an unlimited license rather than the whole kit and kaboodle?
I am staying tuned but Ants better start closing some deals soon!
WG
Let's pretend ANTs can/does buy sybase. That in itself would take such a large amount of revenue away from Oracle that they would do everything in their power to prevent such a transaction. I belileve you're correct about the pps climbing. All we would need is a solid rumor to stir the pot at Oracle, IBM and yes, I would include SUN at this point.
WG, I beg to differ with you about an ANTs Purchase of Sybase being out of the question. I do not have the ability nor the interest to make this a course of study on leveraged buyouts, but the synergies are certainly in place for an acceptable use of that strategy. The huge loss carry forward that ANTS has on it's books becomes an asset to a profitable company because of the tax advantage that is afforded by those past losses.
Also, if there is interest shown by an even larger fish, dare I mention Oracle or SAP or any of several other companies you care to insert, the risk reward becomes even more favorable. I'm not speculating that ANTs WILL buy Sybase, merely suggesting that under the right circumstances it certainly could be put together.
As for the acceptance of the ACS, well if there is no demand for the ACS, then there is no ANTs. The demand for the compatibility server is paramount to any of this rhetoric having validity. I too wait with bated breath for the announcement that a major corporate entity has signed up for a mass migration.
I have some feeling about the sale of the ADS, but for the sake of space and time I will only say that I suspect the sale was not so much to generate funds, although I would have liked more also, but more to sell the costs associated with the maintenance and expansion of the ADS.
ANTs is a high risk company with a huge potential payoff and for that reason, I too wait.
~David~
Talking of ANTs even thinking about, much less being capable of, buying Sybase, sounds to me like somebody is either diluded or just overdosing on peyote. ANTs simply has to show Oracle that the compatibility server works as we have hoped. Once Oracle sees a viable technology, then it's game, set, match. I hope 5 bucks a share isn't too much to ask for.
I am neither delusional nor do I use drugs of any type, but I still enjoy mentally playing "what if". I am a "cup 3/4 full" kind of person, but I appreciate that my vision is not shared by everyone. Dreams are the driving force for most of the conquests that man has achieved. It just seems my dreams may be somewhat larger than yours.
Bill Gates had a dream when he acquired DOS from IBM and Microsoft is now reality. It takes a lot of work and little luck, but dreams do come true.
Saying that, I am still a realist and understand that dreams are still dreams. I did not stake my life in the success of ANTs Software, but the success that Joe Kozak achieves with OUR opportunity could certainly have a major positive impact in my life style.
So, thank you for your comment. Your thoughts help to pull my feet back toward earth. We just approach life from a different plane.
~~David~~
Hi David:
Any thoughts on Antss since it has a commercially viable compatibility server? Do you think it is still a buyout candidate.
Oooops, deleted the comment. Sorry!!
Hello Ron,
Sorry to be so long responding. Long weekend with lots of coughing, etc....I hope I'm done with that part of winter now.
Yes, I have thoughts about the announcement of our "first" compatibility server customer. I don't think that Wyndham is going to bring much to the bottom line for ANTs directly. But I do believe they will be the demonstration vehicle that ANTs so badly needs. As the process works through their system with little to no glitches, the testimonial from the Wyndham management will be a very big part of the proof of concept that we have not had in the past. Finally Mr. Kozak will have an actual case to reference instead of "this is what we think we can do." And not only have we done it, but in a time frame that is unbelievably fast in the software industry. That could be priceless and in my opinion will be.
I also think the "stuff" that is on going, but just not quite ready for release, will be significant to the marketing of the ACS. I don't for a minute believe that Joe Kozak has been sitting on his hands while "we" the shareholders just wait. As ANTs is accepted and incorporated, it becomes more and more a target for some of the BIG guys. I still dream dreams and believe that ultimately ANTs is certainly a buyout target. When and for how much will be determined by the market, but I would love to see a bidding contest between some of the major players.
My dream list consists of Oracle, SAP, IBM, Microsoft, Sybase, SUN, etc. But, other possibilities for ANTs also exist. Grow the existing company, merge with another entity we haven't even heard of yet, go open source. I could go on and on.
These are obviously a few of my thoughts but I am always open to the discussion of some of the ideas and dreams of others. For some reason we have become a guarded bunch of shareholders. I attribute that to many years of waiting and much misinformation we as shareholders have received over those years. I have not seen any smoke and mirrors since Mr. Kozak took control and have full confidence that what he brings to the company is 100% in the shareholders interest. Maybe as things progress a few of the more vocal followers of ANTs who have constructive ideas will come to the front. But in the mean time we wait.
Thanks for the comment, you made me stop and think for a few minutes today. I know everyone does not agree with me, but thought provoking conversation is always good(for both parties).
~~David~~
David:
Thanks for your feedback. With the purchase of Inventa the total shares outstanding are 90 million. What price do you think ANTS is worth at this time?
Also comment more on "The huge loss carry forward that ANTS has on it's books becomes an asset to a profitable company because of the tax advantage that is afforded by those past losses." and how that will affect a buy out.
Thanks,
Ron
Hi again Ron,
I bought my first few shares of ANTs the last part of 1999. I had high expectations for a huge return back in those days, but I must admit the years have tempered my enthusiasm. The lack of acceptance of the technology(ADS) and stock dilution, in my opinion, have been the most detrimental negatives to the stock price. Having said that I still feel confident that I will see a very favorable return on my investment in the end. The actual price per share is too subjective for me to hazard a guess. There are way too many scenarios that could occur and each has it's own set of unknowns. My hope is that several suitors are interested in the ACS and then egos get involved. That would be a very good problem to have. Trying to decide who to accept....
As for the dilution, as long as the value of the dilution is greater than the diluted effect, I am happy. By that I mean if I have 2% interest in a $2 million company and by the purchase of another asset(another company) I now have only 1% interest but in a $6 million company, I have gained value. I feel that a gain is what ANTs achieved with the purchase of Inventa.
Mr. Kozak bought Inventa, sold the ADS(arguably too cheaply...., but not by me) which cut expenses and put money in the bank, reigned in other expenses, and hopefully is now on the threshold of opening opportunities for the ACS. If his next action is to build a client base for the ACS(slow process), buy another positive growth asset(not as slow, but still a long process) or position for ANTs to be absorbed(bought) by a bigger fish(the fastest return for shareholders), I have faith and trust in Mr. Kozak's leadership and I for one plan on waiting for the final outcome of this investment(actually journey).
Wow, long answer for a short question and I could go on and on.
Briefly, the loss carry forward can be used against profits(for tax purposes) that a purchasing company can use as an asset on their balance sheet. There are rules for the use of those loses that a CPA would have to address, but the loss carry forward attached to ANTs would be substantial.
Back to real work now.
Thanks again for the interest,
~~David~~
PS Please excuse the grammar and spelling. No time to proof read.
Hi David:
News from Yahoo.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/149049/Oracle%3A-Eat-My-Dust%2C-IBM
Oracle is looking for good middleware.
Clearly, Oracle’s acquisition binge strategy, which has provided it with more customers and more recurring revenue, has proven a wise one. No surprise then that Ellison said the company continues to look for takeover targets. “Some companies have much more attractive valuations right now but I’m not sure they’d be wildly enthusiastic about selling for cash at this point in time,” he said. “So we’re going to wait and see how things play out and we’re looking at a number of small acquisitions in the vertical areas and some potential opportunities for a large company acquisition if the price is right.”
Ron
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